If you’ve been watching the headlines, you’ve probably seen two stories at the same time:
- Nationally, the housing market looks like it’s finally finding its footing again.
- In parts of Florida, especially some of the fast-run-up markets, pricing is still working through a reset.
Both can be true.
Here’s my high-level 2026 outlook using recent forecasts and commentary from Realtor.com, Keeping Current Matters, ResiClub, and BAM, plus my boots on the ground perspective for Jupiter real estate, northern Palm Beach County homes, and southern Martin County. BAM - The Key To Thriving in Real Estate+4Realtor+4Keeping Current Matters+4
The 30,000-foot view for 2026: steady, healthier, more “normal”
Most credible forecasts are pointing to 2026 being more balanced than the last couple of years. Not a boom, not a bust. More like a market that actually functions again.
Here’s what Realtor.com is projecting for 2026 nationally:
- Mortgage rates averaging about 6.3%
- Home prices rising modestly, around 2.2%
- Existing-home sales ticking up about 1.7% to roughly 4.13 million
- For-sale inventory continuing to recover, up about 9% year over year Realtor+1
Keeping Current Matters echoes the same theme: more people are expected to move as rates ease gradually and price growth stays moderate. Keeping Current Matters
ResiClub’s read on Zillow’s forecast is also consistent with the “slow grind” narrative, not a crash. Zillow’s 12-month outlook (as of late 2025 updates) has been in the low single digits for national price growth, reflecting a market that’s stabilizing. ResiClub
Translation: 2026 looks like a year where motivated buyers and sellers can actually make decisions without feeling like they’re stepping onto a moving treadmill.
Florida in 2026: a tale of two markets (and yes, some are still down)
Florida has been one of the biggest “split personality” states in real estate.
Some metros have more inventory pressure, more new construction competition, and more price sensitivity than they did during the peak frenzy. Realtor.com even projects that Florida’s eight largest metro areascould see median prices dip an average of about 1.9% in 2026. Realtor
That does not mean “Florida is crashing.” It means certain areas that ran hottest are normalizing, and buyers have gotten pickier. And with insurance and carrying costs part of the conversation, value matters more than it did in 2021 to 2023.
Why Jupiter is different (and why I’m staying bullish)
Jupiter is not “every Florida market.”
Jupiter, northern Palm Beach County, and southern Martin County benefit from something that doesn’t show up cleanly in national forecasts: lifestyle-driven demand that stays sticky.
People are not just buying a house here. They’re buying:
- water access and outdoor living
- top-tier golf, beaches, and boating
- strong schools and community feel
- proximity to Palm Beach, West Palm, and major airports without living in the middle of the chaos
That lifestyle premium is why, even when other Florida pockets soften, Jupiter real estate tends to hold firm.
What I’m seeing locally (and what I expect to define our early 2026 story):
- Resale remains strong when homes are priced correctly and show well.
- Prices are holding firmer here than in many Florida markets that are dealing with heavier inventory pressure.
- Days on market are starting to improve slightly.
- List-to-sales price ratios are starting to improve slightly.
- Development and new inventory continue to shape buyer options, but quality resales are still winning when they’re positioned right.
That’s the “Jupiter advantage.” You don’t have to compete on price alone when demand is built on lifestyle and long-term desirability.
Rates in 2026: the market doesn’t need cheap money, it needs consistency
A big theme going into 2026 is that stability in mortgage rates may matter as much as lower rates.
Florida Realtors highlighted that rates around 6.3% and the Mortgage Bankers Association expectation of higher originations reflect a market that can start moving again when buyers feel less uncertainty. Florida Realtors
And Realtor.com’s outlook keeps coming back to the same point: even modest rate relief plus improving inventory can help the market function more normally. Realtor+1
So when I say I expect a better spring, I’m not banking on a dramatic rate drop. I’m banking on a little relief, plus buyers gaining confidence that the rate swings aren’t going to whiplash them every week.
Spring 2026 in Jupiter: why mid-January matters
In our Florida seasonal rhythm, the spring market starts earlier than many parts of the country.
My expectation: listings begin “flooding” the market mid-January, and buyer activity builds fast as we move deeper into season.
That creates two very different opportunities:
If you’re selling in Jupiter or northern Palm Beach County
This is an excellent window to list because:
- more buyers are back in town
- serious buyers want to lock something in before competition heats up
- good inventory gets attention quickly when it’s priced right and presented well
If you’re buying in Jupiter or southern Martin County
You need to be diligent and ready:
- more options hit the market mid-January
- the best homes still don’t wait around
- if rates give even slight relief, buyer urgency can return quickly
My advice is simple: be early, be ready, and be decisive when the right house shows up.
The bottom line for 2026: Florida may be mixed, but Jupiter should stay strong
Nationally, 2026 is projected to be steadier with modest price growth, improving inventory, and slightly better sales volume. Realtor+2Keeping Current Matters+2
Florida will likely remain uneven, with some larger metros still working through price softness. Realtor
But Jupiter is positioned differently. Demand is lifestyle-driven, resale remains resilient, and the spring market timing favors sellers who prepare early and buyers who stay alert.
If you want a smart 2026 plan, it’s not about guessing national headlines. It’s about understanding your micro-market in Jupiter, Palm Beach County, and Martin County and moving with intention.
